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Naira hits N1,665/$ as dollar shortages persist in Black Market

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The local currency exceeded the N1,160 threshold against the US dollar despite a significant decline in the dollar index during the week’s last trading session.

The naira was valued as low as N1,670 against the haven currency on the black market in major Nigerian cities.

Market fundamentals attribute such fluctuation to seasonality. The Nigerian upper class typically travels during this time of year or needs to pay for their children’s education abroad.

The naira gained 4.8% on Wednesday after the government successfully raised $900 million in its first domestic dollar bond; however, the loss reversed this gain. Dollar shortages were cited as the reason for the 48% decline in domestic dollar liquidity.

President Bola Tinubu removed regulations last year that kept the currency artificially overvalued in the hopes of attracting foreign investment.

However, the currency has lost more than two-thirds of its value relative to the dollar. According to a CBN poll, Nigerian firms anticipate that the naira will fall further between now and December, but they expect it to strengthen next year.

Additionally, the local currency’s present situation defies the forecasts of analysts at Renaissance Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Financial Derivatives Company, who all predicted that the naira would settle at N1,000 or less.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, was down on Friday as markets continued to digest this week’s inflation data. By the end of the week, expectations increased slightly that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its upcoming meeting.

Technical indicators for the DXY index have turned negative and started to decline again. Notably, the index crossed below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and above the 101.2 support line, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside.

Media sources suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce a substantial 50 basis point interest rate decrease at its policy meeting next week. This caused the value of the US dollar to plummet on Friday to its lowest level in almost nine months against the Japanese yen.

Market expectations reportedly shifted after a former Fed official advocated for a significant rate cut and reports indicated that a 50-basis point reduction remains possible. The likelihood of a 50-basis point easing by the Fed at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday is priced into the U.S. rate futures market at 51%, up from roughly 15% early on Thursday. Additionally, futures traders have increased their 2024 rate cut projections from 107 basis points to 117 basis points.

The greenback recovered some of its losses after data showed that consumer confidence in the United States rose in September despite declining inflation. The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of the overall consumer sentiment index for this month was 69.0, up from the final reading of 67.9 in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters had projected an initial score of 68.5.

U.S. economic data released this week indicated that the measure of consumer price inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose more than expected in August, suggesting that the standard 25-basis point decrease is still expected next week.

However, on Friday, Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, fueled further speculation about a possible 50-basis point cut in interest rates. He stated that rates were currently 150–200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate, which is the threshold at which policy is neither accommodating nor restrictive for the U.S. economy, making a strong case for lowering them.

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CBN to hold MPC meeting September 23

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced its forthcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting.

In a statement on Wednesday, the CBN said its 297th MPC meeting will be held on September 23 and 24.

The MPC meeting is set up to review the country’s economic and financial conditions and determine the appropriate monetary policy direction in the short to medium term.

The committee, led by Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, is the highest policy-making committee of the bank.

At the last meeting held on July 22 and 23, the committee raised the monetary policy rate (MPR), which benchmarks interest rates, from 26.25 percent to 26.75 percent – an increase of 50 basis points.

The MPC adjusted the asymmetric corridor at +500 basis points and -100 basis points around the MPR, while the cash reserve ratio (CRR) was retained at 45 percent, and liquidity ratio at 30 percent.

Speaking on the monetary efforts to tame inflation, Cardoso said the committee was mindful of the effect of rising prices on households and businesses, and “is resolved to take necessary measures to bring inflation under control”.

He also said the committee suggested the need to check the activities of farmers in order to address the food supply deficit in the Nigerian market to moderate food prices.

For two consecutive months, the country’s headline inflation has dropped.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s inflation rate declined to 33.40 percent in July and 32.15 percent in August.

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CBN constitutes new Keystone Bank board, names Ada Chukwudozie chair

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has constituted a new board for Keystone Bank Limited as part of efforts to strengthen the lender’s operations for sustained business growth.

In a statement on Wednesday, Keystone Bank said Ada Chukwudozie was appointed as the board chairman, with five other non-executive directors including Abdul-Rahman Esene, Fola Akande, Akintola Ayodeji Olusoji, Obijiaku Samuel, and Farouk Bello.

Also, Keystone said CBN appointed Ladi Oluwole and Abubakar Usman Bello as executive directors.

According to the statement, Chukwudozie is a leading figure in Nigeria’s corporate world, with nearly 30 years of experience in business strategy, management, and administration.

Her expertise spans multiple industries and institutions, including De-Endy Industrial Company Limited, Dozzy Group, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), and Vogue Afrique Magazine.

The lender said Esene has over 43 years of experience in banking, investment management, corporate finance, and advisory services.

He has made significant contributions to the financial sector in Nigeria and beyond through his accomplishments and leadership roles at renowned global institutions including Afrinvest, Global Arbitrage International Inc, Fidelity Bank Plc, the Nigeria Air Force, and Louisiana-Pacific Corporation.

“Fola Akande brings over 25 years of exceptional experience in navigating the complex fields of legal, regulatory compliance, risk management, and corporate governance across various local and international markets, including Cadbury, Stanbic Chartered Bank, and Shell,” Keystone said.

“Akintola Ayodeji Olusoji has over 30 years experience in accounting, finance, business development, risk asset creation, and performance monitoring with a distinguished career spanning financial institutions such as Sterling Bank, Access Bank, Intercontinental Bank, and Global Bank.

“Obijiaku Samuel comes with over 35 years of expertise in financial consulting, banking, and treasury operations. He has significantly impacted Nigeria’s financial sector through his achievements and leadership roles at prominent institutions such as Fidelity Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

“Farouk Bello is a seasoned banker with over 20 years of experience and remarkable achievements in financial and banking operations. His leadership roles have spanned both the public and private sectors, including regulatory bodies and private enterprises.

“With a strong track record, he has successfully shaped and delivered business processes and financial solutions across various institutions like the National Assembly and Guaranty Trust Bank (now GTCO), among others.

“Abubakar Usman Bello, executive director northern directorate, has acquired considerable experience in banking and management which spans various areas of banking, managing commercial, retail, corporate and public sector clients; and has served in strategic leadership and management roles.

“Ladi Oluwole, executive director risk management, brings with him over 20 years of expertise in enterprise and credit risk management and a proven track record in the financial services industry.

“Previously, he served as senior vice-president and senior credit officer at Bank of America, North America, where he managed an extensive credit portfolio within the Corporate, Investment, and Commercial Bank.”

‘WE’LL BENEFIT FROM THEIR VAST EXPERIENCE’

Commenting on the appointments, Hassan Imam, the managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) of Keystone, welcomed the new appointees to the board.

“We are pleased to welcome the new chairman, non-executive directors, and executive directors to the board of Keystone Bank,” he said.

Imam expressed confidence that the bank will benefit from the board’s vast experience as it continues to reposition itself to capitalise on emerging economic opportunities hinged on strong corporate governance, aimed at delivering a secure and reliable banking experience for customers.

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Tinubu did not ask Cardoso to resign, says presidency

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Tinubu did not ask Cardoso to resign, says presidency

The presidency says President Bola Tinubu did not ask Yemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to resign.

According to a report on Tuesday, the president reportedly asked Cardoso to resign from his position owing to his inability to stop the poor performance of the economy, most especially, the free fall of the naira.

The report also alleged that Tinubu instructed Cardoso to step down before his departure to China, despite alleged efforts by prominent Yoruba leaders to retain him in the role.

“Cardoso, who reportedly secured the nomination for the plum job through the Yoruba Elders, allegedly lacks the knack to turn around the troubled institution and the poor economy he inherited,” the report said.

“Cardoso’s undoing, according to insiders, is his inability to live up to the promise he made to President Tinubu in January to salvage the Naira and return it to between N700 and N900 to $1 before May 29, 2024, and also, save the economy from the ruins it currently lays.”

Addressing the claim via his X handle, Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on information and strategy, called the report false.

“It’s all lies. President Tinubu has not asked Yemi Cardoso to resign,” Onanuga said.

Cardoso was appointed by Tinubu on September 22, 2023.

Within the first year of Cardoso’s tenure, the naira has depreciated by 124.39 percent in the official window and depreciated by 66.83 percent in the parallel market.

When Cardoso assumed office, the naira was N738/$ in the official window however, almost a year later, the naira has depreciated to N1,656 per dollar in the official market as of Tuesday.

Also, in the parallel market, the naira has depreciated to N1,660/$ as of Tuesday, from the N995/$ reported when he began his tenure.

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