Business
Nigeria’s trade exports to India decline by 61% in one year
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that Nigeria’s exports to India have plummeted by a staggering 61% over the past year.
This comes as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads a corporate delegation from Nigeria to India for a business conference on the sidelines of the G20 summit held in the country. The conference is aimed at attracting foreign direct investment to the country.
India was Nigeria’s top export destination in 2022, however, recent data indicates that it has now slipped out of the top 5. India stopped being Nigeria’s lead export destination in the third quarter of 2022 as Spain took over.
According to NBS data, Nigeria’s trade exports to India in the second quarter of 2023 amounted to N463.3 billion, making India Nigeria’s sixth-largest export destination.
- This marks a sharp decline from the same period in 2022 when Nigeria’s trade exports to India reached N1 trillion, making India Nigeria’s largest export market at the time.
- Exports to India have been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2022. During that quarter, total exports decreased to N619.2 billion, and by the last quarter of 2022, exports had further declined to N490.4 billion.
- Total exports to India have fallen by 61% from N2.1 trillion in the first half of 2022 to N849 billion in the first half of 2023.
- Total trade to India (including imports) has declined by 44.6% from N3 trillion in the first half of 2022 to just N1.69 trillion in the first half of this year.
Nigeria is currently running a thin trade surplus with India of just over N5 billion in the first half of 2023, a sharp decline from about N1.2 trillion same period in 2022.
Reasons for the Decline
The primary cause of this significant drop is the falling crude oil exports, which at their peak, accounted for as much as a trillion naira in trade between Nigeria and India.
- For instance, in the first and second quarters of 2022, crude oil exports to India stood at about N1.03 trillion and N1.09 trillion, respectively.
- However, a decline was observed in the second half of 2022, with exports dropping to N559.3 billion in Q3 and N420.8 billion in Q4.
- The downturn continued into 2023, with crude oil exports falling to just N327.8 billion and N368.2 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively.
- This overall decline in crude oil exports to India has also impacted Nigeria’s total crude oil exports.
- Data shows that total crude oil exports in the first half of 2023 were N10.6 trillion, compared to N11.5 trillion during the same period in 2022.
Nigeria’s loss is Russia’s gain
Nigeria seems to have lost much of its export market share in India to Russia due to the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.
- The war has made Russian crude oil more cost-effective, which may have prompted India to reduce its reliance on Nigeria’s crude oil exports.
- According to a NY Times story, sighting the International Energy Agency, India buys “nearly two million barrels a day, roughly 45 percent of its imports.”
- Nigeria also has to contend with Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries which also export crude oil to India.
- India imports around 84% of its crude oil requirements, making it the third-largest oil consumer and importer in the world.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for about one-fourth of India’s total gas demand, is also largely imported, making India the fourth-largest importer of LNG. The country has a growing demand for both oil and natural gas.
President Tinubu’s visit to India has largely been about attracting investments into the country through foreign direct investments. However, the immediate need might be to get India to start importing Nigeria’a crude oil which is critical to helping Nigeria stabilize its forex inflows.
Business
Sudan introduces new banknotes to revive war-torn economy
The Sudanese government, in an effort to stabilize its crumbling economy, has introduced new banknotes and compelled the largely unbanked population to open bank accounts.
The initiative, launched in December, aims to render funds looted by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) worthless.
According to Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, the initiative has been successful, though he did not specify the amount of Sudanese pounds deposited.
Sudan has been embroiled in a two-year conflict between the army and the RSF, which has severely damaged the economy, devalued the currency by three-quarters, and left half the population facing hunger.
Ibrahim stated that the government’s move has significantly boosted bank deposits. “This helps the banking sector, and when you help the banking sector, that helps the state to finance projects, including the war effort and productive activities,” Ibrahim told Reuters in an interview.
Limited amount to be withdrawn daily
To receive the new 500-pound and 1,000-pound banknotes, citizens have been required to deposit their old notes in banks and are allowed to withdraw limited amounts daily. This strategy has drawn funds from a largely unbanked society into the formal financial system.
Since the onset of the war, RSF soldiers have looted numerous banks and obstructed agricultural activities, making it difficult for the army-aligned government to pay salaries and finance essential goods such as medicine.
Ibrahim noted that Sudan produced 64 tonnes of gold last year and officially exported about half, indicating that the proportion of looted gold in army-controlled areas has decreased.
A source at Sudan’s central bank revealed that the new banknotes were printed in Russia, one of several foreign powers intervening in the conflict.
Business
Ghana’s inflation rises to 23.8% — highest in eight months
Ghana’s consumer inflation rate rose for the fourth consecutive month to 23.8 percent in December 2024.
Samuel Kobina Annim, government statistician at the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), announced the figure to journalists in Accra on Wednesday.
Ghana’s inflation rate started rising in September last year, when it rose to 21.5 percent, then climbed further to 22.1 percent in October and 23 percent in November.
Annim said the inflation rate recorded at the end of last year was the highest in eight months.
“The rate of inflation… is the third highest in the last 13 months and highest in the last eight months,” Annim said.
Also, food inflation saw a significant jump, rising from 25.9 percent in November to 27.8 percent in December.
Annim attributed the increase to the contributions from specific food items, such as yams, showing drastic year-on-year price hikes of 63.3 percent.
He also highlighted the need for a dual approach to tackling inflation, addressing both monetary and real-sector issues.
“We do emphasise that there are two perspectives in addressing inflation. One is the monetary side… and the other is the real side, with what we’ve seen with food inflation, more particularly the food that we consume, that are locally produced,” he added.
Annim urged policymakers to focus on production, value chains, transportation, warehousing, and reducing post-harvest losses to stabilise food prices.
“Policymakers put in diverse interventions, rather than focusing on, let’s say, only exchange rate or focusing on just some selected items that do not cover the variety of food items that influence food prices,” he said.
Business
Governor Sanwo-olu signs N3.366trn 2025 budget
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Thursday, signed the 2025 appropriation bill into law.
The Special Adviser on Media and Publicity to the Governor, Gboyega Akosile, made this known in a post on his X handle.
He said the budget size is N3.366 trillion meant for the continuation of the great works of the Sanwo-Olu administration.
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