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Nigeria’s trade exports to India decline by 61% in one year

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The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that Nigeria’s exports to India have plummeted by a staggering 61% over the past year.

This comes as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads a corporate delegation from Nigeria to India for a business conference on the sidelines of the G20 summit held in the country. The conference is aimed at attracting foreign direct investment to the country.

India was Nigeria’s top export destination in 2022, however, recent data indicates that it has now slipped out of the top 5. India stopped being Nigeria’s lead export destination in the third quarter of 2022 as Spain took over.

According to NBS data, Nigeria’s trade exports to India in the second quarter of 2023 amounted to N463.3 billion, making India Nigeria’s sixth-largest export destination.

  • This marks a sharp decline from the same period in 2022 when Nigeria’s trade exports to India reached N1 trillion, making India Nigeria’s largest export market at the time.
  • Exports to India have been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2022. During that quarter, total exports decreased to N619.2 billion, and by the last quarter of 2022, exports had further declined to N490.4 billion.
  • Total exports to India have fallen by 61% from N2.1 trillion in the first half of 2022 to N849 billion in the first half of 2023.
  • Total trade to India (including imports) has declined by 44.6% from  N3 trillion in the first half of 2022 to just N1.69 trillion in the first half of this year.

Nigeria is currently running a thin trade surplus with India of just over N5 billion in the first half of 2023, a sharp decline from about N1.2 trillion same period in 2022.

Reasons for the Decline

The primary cause of this significant drop is the falling crude oil exports, which at their peak, accounted for as much as a trillion naira in trade between Nigeria and India.

  • For instance, in the first and second quarters of 2022, crude oil exports to India stood at about N1.03 trillion and N1.09 trillion, respectively.
  • However, a decline was observed in the second half of 2022, with exports dropping to N559.3 billion in Q3 and N420.8 billion in Q4.
  • The downturn continued into 2023, with crude oil exports falling to just N327.8 billion and N368.2 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively.
  • This overall decline in crude oil exports to India has also impacted Nigeria’s total crude oil exports.
  • Data shows that total crude oil exports in the first half of 2023 were N10.6 trillion, compared to N11.5 trillion during the same period in 2022.

Nigeria’s loss is Russia’s gain

Nigeria seems to have lost much of its export market share in India to Russia due to the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.

  • The war has made Russian crude oil more cost-effective, which may have prompted India to reduce its reliance on Nigeria’s crude oil exports.
  • According to a NY Times story, sighting the International Energy Agency, India buys “nearly two million barrels a day, roughly 45 percent of its imports.”
  • Nigeria also has to contend with Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries which also export crude oil to India.
  • India imports around 84% of its crude oil requirements, making it the third-largest oil consumer and importer in the world.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for about one-fourth of India’s total gas demand, is also largely imported, making India the fourth-largest importer of LNG. The country has a growing demand for both oil and natural gas.

President Tinubu’s visit to India has largely been about attracting investments into the country through foreign direct investments. However, the immediate need might be to get India to start importing Nigeria’a crude oil which is critical to helping Nigeria stabilize its forex inflows.

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We’ve not reintroduced cybersecurity levy, says CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it has not reintroduced the cybersecurity levy that was previously suspended.

On May 6, the apex bank directed all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks, mobile money operators, and payment service providers to charge a 0.5 percent cybersecurity levy on electronic transfers.

The CBN later withdrew the directive on May 20, essentially suspending the proposed cybersecurity levy on electronic transfers.

However, reports had claimed that the apex bank reinstated the levy, quoting the CBN’s “Monetary, Credit, Foreign Trade, and Exchange Policy Guidelines for the Fiscal Years 2024-2025”.

In a statement on Friday, the apex bank said the guideline was issued before December 31, 2023, adding that its stance on the suspension has not been revised.

“Some recent media publications referencing aspects of the Guidelines refer to policy positions of the Bank issued prior to 31st December 2023, which have changed in the light of revisions and updates in 2024,” the CBN said.

“One example is the Cyber Security Levy, which was suspended in May 2024, superseding the circular reported in the Guidelines.”

CBN said the guidelines “must primarily” be viewed as a record of policies, circulars and directives issued “up to the end of 2023”.

The bank said they are not new directives and should not be reported as such, adding that it would continue to provide clear monetary policy direction and advice for the overall benefit of the economy.

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NCAA to address ticket refund issues within 24 hours as Keyamo launches portal

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Festus Keyamo, minister of aviation and aerospace development, has inaugurated the consumer protection portal of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA).

The portal, launched in Lagos on Thursday, aims to provide easy access for travellers to lodge complaints online and track the resolution process.

Speaking at the launch, Keyamo directed the NCAA to address airline ticket refunds owed to passengers by airlines within 24 hours.

He said many passengers have struggled to reclaim funds for flights booked from airlines that are currently not operating.

Keyamo, on April 24, had asked the NCAA to suspend the operations of Dana Air after one of its aircraft veered off the Lagos airport runway.

“I am not unaware of the complaints of people whose money has not been refunded by certain airlines that have stopped operations due to safety concerns,” Keyamo said.

“I receive a huge number of such complaints in my emails, text messages, and direct messages. I have been a lawyer of the federal republic for over 30 years before I was called to serve my fatherland. People find a way to send these complaints to me and that is why I receive some of these complaints directly.

“For the airlines that have not refunded passengers’ money, there must be a public statement by the NCAA by the end of Friday latest.

“Let the public know what is happening to that money. I know you have resolved that. Let’s not pretend as if we are not hearing anything about this. People bought tickets before the airlines ran into troubled waters. What happened to their money? What plans do you have to refund them? This is part of consumer protection.

“The NCAA should come out with a public statement to show what they are doing about resolving the issue.”

‘CONSUMER PROTECTION PORTAL TO ENSURE EFFICIENCY’

On protecting travellers, Keyamo said the portal is expected to streamline the complaints process and ensure efficiency in the aviation sector.

He commended the NCAA’s leadership, particularly its consumer protection directorate, for the initiative, noting that passenger satisfaction is crucial for the industry’s viability.

“The final thing that we must achieve in the sector is that the person boarding the aircraft must have good experience, must feel the change either in terms of prices, environment or experience. Everybody is working for that final consumer, including myself,” he said.

“Let it be clear that we are all consumer protection officers and it’s not only for those gentlemen and ladies in uniform.

“As a frequent flyer myself, I have seen firsthand, the rage of passengers who are either disappointed by delayed flights, cancellations or some ugly experiences on those flights. I have seen the rage and this is a means by which they can ventilate that rage.”

On his part, Chris Najomo, acting director-general of the NCAA, praised the initiative as a vital step in protecting the rights of aviation consumers in Nigeria.

“In today’s rapidly evolving marketplace, consumers face myriads of challenges. From being unaware of their rights to navigating complex regulations to addressing poor services or unfair practices,” Najomo said.

“Hence, the need for a robust system to protect and empower consumers has never been more critical.”

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Coca-Cola announces plan to invest $1bn in Nigeria

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Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company says it will invest $1 billion in Nigeria over the next five years.

The investment commitment was made during a meeting with Coca-Cola’s global leadership team, including John Murphy, president and chief financial officer, and Segun Apata, chairman of Nigerian Bottling Company.

Reacting to the development in a statement on Thursday, President Bola Tinubu commended Coca-Cola for its long-standing partnership with Nigeria and for employing over 3,000 people across nine production facilities.

Tinubu said the investment highlights his administration’s commitment to creating a robust financial system and a business-friendly economy.

The president spoke in a statement signed by Bayo Onanuga, his special adviser on information and strategy.

“We are business-friendly, and as I said at my inauguration, we must create an environment of easy-in and easy-out for businesses,” the statement reads.

“We are building a financial system where you can invest, re-invest, and repatriate all your dividends. I have a firm belief in that.”

Tinubu said private sector partnerships are crucial to his government’s reforms aimed at improving the business environment.

He pledged to continue to support Coca-Cola for expanding its investments in Nigeria and addressing environmental issues, including climate change.

Murphy, speaking on Coca-Cola’s impact in Nigeria, said the company generates ₦320 billion annually through nearly 300,000 customers and contributes almost ₦90 billion in revenue to the Nigerian government.

“We are very proud of the growth of the business over a long period and its impact on the daily lives of many Nigerians,” he said.

Zoran Bogdanovic, CEO of Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, attributed the company’s $1 billion investment pledge to its confidence in the Nigerian government’s policies.

“Mr President, in your inaugural address, we were very pleased to hear of your invitation for foreign investors to invest and your assurance that foreign businesses can repatriate dividends and profits,” the CEO said.

“That assurance gives us the confidence to continue our investments. Since 2013, we have invested $1.5 billion in Nigeria in capacity expansion, transformation of our supply chain infrastructure capabilities, training and development.

“I am very pleased to announce that, with a predictable and enabling environment in place, we plan to invest an additional $1 billion over the next five years.”

Bogdanovic said Nigeria’s potential is tremendous, pledging the company’s commitment to work with the government to realise it.

In November 2021, the beverage manufacturer had plegded to inject $1 billion into Nigeria’s economy.

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