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Tinubu’s Vice and the Power tussle: a battle of four champions

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The emergence of Asiwaju Ahmad Bola Tinibu as the APC presidential flag-bearer in the June 7th – 8th APC special convention (Presidential Primary election) has come with a plethora of thoughts and perceptions as to who will become his vice in the race. The choice seems daunting but also very simple.

Daunting, because a mistake in the choice will have a negative consequential effect on the party’s chances of winning the presidential and National Assembly elections on February 28th, 2023.

Simple, because choosing the best and considering certain parameters will give the party an easy as well as overwhelming victory.

Asiwaju is from the south. Specifically, the south-west, whereby by convention and tradition, his vice should come from the north, although in an interview when he visited President Muhammadu Buhari at the Villa, he made it clear that the choice of his vice in the contest is in his pocket book! He should be guided as to the intricacies of making a wrong choice! His choice may mar or make his “lifetime ambition,” as he rightly put it, a reality or a mere fiction.

In the politics of Nigeria, the North has always played a significant role in determining who assumes political office due largely to its population and Electoral value. In 1999, it was the North that agreed to the coming of Obasanjo for fairness then, having seen the annulment of the June, 12 Abiola presidency-this is almost repeated as 12 of the 14 APC northern governors insisted on power shift to the south even when they could had manupulated and have their way since the APC constitution did not oblige rotation/Shift.

The North’s regional competitiveness in power play

The splitting of the country into six geo Polical zones had succeeded in making the country’s politics be along those six lines. The north have three of the six, whereas the south have three. The northern lines are: central, west, and east, with each having its own uniqueness. As of 2019, the north east has 9.9 million registered voters, the north central has 10.5 million, and the north west has 18.5 million registered voters, nearly matching the north east and north central combined! It is for this reason that the Nigerian political trajectory cannot be done in isolation from the north-west. The APC overwhelmingly won its 2015 election simply because a north westerner was standing against a south southerner. In 2015, it was all north but an easterner versus a westerner. Hence, the north-west can’t easily be out of this race!
Even within the north west, preference is made in terms of population, total number of registered voters, historical contribution to APC and prospects of sustainability in the future! According to states, here states like Kano take the lead in every aspect and realm

Tinubu’s Vice President versus 2023 electoral victory

A number of names have circulated in the media, limiting Tinibu’s options of his vice, however, I will compare each to the possibility of Tinibu winning the 2023 election.

  1. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje: current governor of Kano state for the second term. He has been a grassroots politician for over 4 decades, a deputy governor for 2 terms (almost 2 decades)-he has been virtually in active politics in Kano since 1999. Prior to 1999, Ganduje had been in politics since the second republic when he joined NPN and contested. At the return of military rule, he had held several positions at the federal level until 1994 when he became Commissioner of Works and Housing with the Kano state government. Rising from a local government administrator to a commissioner at state level to a deputy governor and becoming a governor within some 3 decades means a lot. It explains how one must have appreciated the political, economic, and social matrix of the society or state he battles politics in! He had mastered the art and science of politics going through history and had the tendency to manage it against 2023 as he did in the history of his political sojourn. Coming from a state that has the highest number of registered voters and viewing to his political versatility, he is considered most suitable as Tinubu’s vice for standing electoral value against all those he has been peered with in the quest.
  2. Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai, Although he is more of a private sector with less knowledge of politics, Nasir has risen to make significant changes in the way politics and governance are operated in Kaduna state.one can’t compare his greatness in politics with Ganduje, one must give it to him that he believed even if it went against people’s view. He joined politics in 1999, though not a politician but more of a technocrat, emerging as the pioneered chairman of Berua for Public Enterprises-BPE, an agency the Obasanjo led presidency established to privatise and commercialise government owned businesses. He was engaged as FCT minister and was successful in giving Abuja the current good look it has. In a technical sense, El-Rufai’s political journey is only less than a decade old. Compared to his fellows in Kano, who have almost 40 years of on-the-job experience and expertise. His governance style has been heavily criticised in southern Kaduna, a Christian-dominated region that has repeatedly called for CAN intervention; some political analysts believe that this minor squabble with the Christians may cause him to lose Tinibu’s vice because Christians are regarded as having significant electoral value, particularly in his state.
  3. Atiku Bagudu: Although he is considered a new breed in politics and gentry with no basis in grass-root politics, Atiku has treversed the northern political elites to have emerged as Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum, which has given him a lot of political relevance and influence. The recent events in his state of losing APC party bigwigs is indeed a major setback to his ability to emerge as Tinubu’s vice couple with low electoral value Kebbi is placed on.

4.Kashim Shettima, a two-term governor of Borno state and a serving senator from Borno. Kashim’s name surfaced to many in 2011 when he participated in the second primary election that brought him to the Guber race 2011 After the death of Gubio, whose life was cut short by gunmen. He had governed Borno for 8 years at a time when Boko Haram was at its peak. He is also less of a grass-root politician but is considered a loyal supporter of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu like Ganduje. Borno is also considered of lesser electoral value to Kano, even though they are good at coming up with block votes. His chances of becoming Asiwajus vice vis a vis bring Electoral value are less. He is suggested to be Tinibu’s Chief of staff if he emerged president.

The choice among the four and justification

On the final lap of this submission, Tinubu may not have a problem choosing a Muslim Northern based on electoral value! No Christian sees Tinubu as an Islamiser; his major mentees are Christians, including the vice president, and his wife, Oluremi Tinubu, is a pastor; thus, his only task is to garner and canvass northern votes.

In the early analysis, Asiwaju will win 90% of the South West. This if compared to his runner-up, Atiku, who can hardly have 70% in any of the geopolitical zones is and edge.

As a result, the choice of Ganduje as Vice President will provide Tinibu with North West electoral value hence getting the requisite numbers to win the 2023 election, as he will win both rural and urban Kano, as seen in 2015 and 2019.

No matter how it will appear, ours is to predict based on facts, but time is the best of judges in moments of life.

Politics

‘It’s ridiculous’ — LP debunks claim of working for Tinubu ahead of 2027

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The Labour Party (LP) has denied allegations of working for President Bola Tinubu ahead of the 2027 elections.

The party is reacting to a viral video in which Deji Adeyanju, a human rights lawyer, alleged that the LP is working for the president.

In a statement issued on Friday, Obiora Ifoh, national publicity secretary of the LP, said the party has no plans to support Tinubu.

“As a matter of fact, the Labour Party is the most visible opposition party as of today, and our national chairman, Barrister Abure, is the leading voice in the opposition camp and has been most critical of the present government,” the statement reads.

“After the 2023 general election, it continued to interrogate the system’s failure and has been very visible playing the role of the opposition, continuously critiquing the policies, proffering solutions, and advising the government.

“It is on record that the Labour Party has on several occasions spiritedly debunked the allegations that it has an unholy understanding with the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, to collaborate ahead of the 2027 general election.

“Recently, the party, under the able leadership of Mr. Julius Abure, came up with a series of programmes, including the creation of the electoral reform committee.

“With it, we hope to enthrone credible, fair, and transparent processes, leading to the selection of leadership in the country, with the Labour Party being a major victim in the 2023 general election.

”All these efforts to reposition the party for someone to be demarketing such a party in such an unguarded and callous manner is most ridiculous and unfortunate.

“We are, therefore, challenging Deji Adeyanju and any other person to come up with facts and proofs that either the party leadership or Mr. Abure intends to work for President Bola Tinubu or his party, the APC, in 2027.

“Adeyanju’s assertion, which is presently trending globally, has caused the Labour Party enormous harm, and we are demanding that he refrain from causing the party further harm.

“As a political party, we view Deji Adeyanju’s now-viral comments as criminal defamation, a clearly motivated ploy to ridicule our hard-earned reputation.

“We are therefore calling on Mr. Adeyanju, who ought to know the grave consequences of a defamatory act, to without delay provide facts and evidence to prove that the Labour Party has been ‘bought’ over by President Tinubu.

“He also has a choice to withdraw his ill assertions and apologise to the leadership and millions of members of the Labour Party for the great harm he has caused the party.”

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Politics

‘Absolutely ridiculous’ — APC chieftain faults Daniel Bwala’s appointment

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Jesutega Onokpasa, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has faulted the appointment of Daniel Bwala as special adviser on policy communication to President Bola Tinubu.

Onokpasa’s remarks come amid controversy surrounding Bwala’s past criticism of the president.

Bwala, who served as the spokesperson for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during the 2023 presidential campaign, was vocal in his allegations against Tinubu.

He called for the president’s arrest and prosecution over alleged corruption, including accusations related to drug proceeds forfeited in the United States.

At the time, Bwala also called on Nigerian law enforcement agencies to take action against Tinubu.

Speaking on ‘News Night,’ an Arise TV programme, Onokpasa criticised the president’s decision to appoint Bwala, describing it as a betrayal to the president’s supporters.

“Our dear and beloved President stabbed all of us, his staunch supporters, in the back with this absolutely ridiculous, meaningless and just inexplicable appointment,” Onokpasa said.

“I am a Tinubu supporter and not a sycophant; his apologists are calling his appointment of Bwala strategy, but I think it is stupidity.”

Onokpasa, who identifies as a loyal supporter of Tinubu, also expressed frustration at what he perceived as the president’s disregard for his base.

“Not all his supporters want an appointment. It’s just the insult that our president seems to take us (his supporters) for granted,” Onokpasa added.

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Politics

Enugu LGA chairman appoints aides on garden egg, pepper, yam

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Eric Odo, chairman of Igbo Etiti LGA of Enugu state, has appointed Ezeugwu Ogbonna as senior special assistant on agriculture (yam and pepper).

The appointment is contained in a letter dated November 1 and addressed to Ogbonna.

“I am pleased to inform you that the executive chairman Igbo Etiti LGA has approved your appointment as senior special assistant to the local government chairman on agriculture (yam and pepper),” the letter reads.

“You should report to the executive chairman Igbo Etiti LGA, Ogbede, for briefing and deployment.

“It is pertinent to note that this is not a career civil service appointment but a temporary appointment which you hold at the pleasure of the executive chairman of Igbo Etiti LGA.”

Odo also appointed Nwodo Ugonna as special adviser on garden egg and pepper.

The council chairman did not outline the specific duties of the appointees.

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Bodex F. Hungbo, SPMIIM is a multiple award-winning Nigerian Digital Media Practitioner, Digital Strategist, PR consultant, Brand and Event Expert, Tv Presenter, Tier-A Blogger/Influencer, and a top cobbler in Nigeria.

She has widespread experiences across different professions and skills, which includes experiences in; Marketing, Media, Broadcasting, Brand and Event Management, Administration and Management with prior stints at MTN, NAPIMS-NNPC, GLOBAL FLEET OIL AND GAS, LTV, Silverbird and a host of others

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