Full Dangote refinery capacity could drive naira below ₦1,000/$ — Otedola

Billionaire businessman, Femi Otedola, has said naira could trade below ₦1,000 to the US dollar before the end of 2026, following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

Otedola made the claim in a post on X on Thursday while congratulating his friend and fellow businessman, Aliko Dangote, on the milestone.

The naira, which has strengthened in recent weeks, was trading around ₦1,354 to the dollar at the official foreign exchange market on Thursday and about ₦1,430–₦1,440 on the parallel market — its strongest levels in more than two years — according to market sources.

The refinery’s full capacity, Otedola said in the post, is “transformational for Nigeria and Africa,” noting its ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily would change the country’s energy narrative and conserve foreign exchange.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly.

“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” he said.

Beyond the current capacity, he said Dangote was embarking on an additional $12 billion expansion to boost refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside plans to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene, a key ingredient in detergents.

Otedola said work on the expansion had “already commenced in earnest.”

The Dangote facility’s achievement comes amid ongoing efforts to stabilise Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange market, with the Central Bank of Nigeria recently implementing measures to improve liquidity and narrow the gap between official and parallel rates.