The local currency exceeded the N1,160 threshold against the US dollar despite a significant decline in the dollar index during the week’s last trading session.

The naira was valued as low as N1,670 against the haven currency on the black market in major Nigerian cities.

Market fundamentals attribute such fluctuation to seasonality. The Nigerian upper class typically travels during this time of year or needs to pay for their children’s education abroad.

The naira gained 4.8% on Wednesday after the government successfully raised $900 million in its first domestic dollar bond; however, the loss reversed this gain. Dollar shortages were cited as the reason for the 48% decline in domestic dollar liquidity.

President Bola Tinubu removed regulations last year that kept the currency artificially overvalued in the hopes of attracting foreign investment.

However, the currency has lost more than two-thirds of its value relative to the dollar. According to a CBN poll, Nigerian firms anticipate that the naira will fall further between now and December, but they expect it to strengthen next year.

Additionally, the local currency’s present situation defies the forecasts of analysts at Renaissance Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Financial Derivatives Company, who all predicted that the naira would settle at N1,000 or less.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, was down on Friday as markets continued to digest this week’s inflation data. By the end of the week, expectations increased slightly that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its upcoming meeting.

Technical indicators for the DXY index have turned negative and started to decline again. Notably, the index crossed below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and above the 101.2 support line, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside.

Media sources suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce a substantial 50 basis point interest rate decrease at its policy meeting next week. This caused the value of the US dollar to plummet on Friday to its lowest level in almost nine months against the Japanese yen.

Market expectations reportedly shifted after a former Fed official advocated for a significant rate cut and reports indicated that a 50-basis point reduction remains possible. The likelihood of a 50-basis point easing by the Fed at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday is priced into the U.S. rate futures market at 51%, up from roughly 15% early on Thursday. Additionally, futures traders have increased their 2024 rate cut projections from 107 basis points to 117 basis points.

The greenback recovered some of its losses after data showed that consumer confidence in the United States rose in September despite declining inflation. The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of the overall consumer sentiment index for this month was 69.0, up from the final reading of 67.9 in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters had projected an initial score of 68.5.

U.S. economic data released this week indicated that the measure of consumer price inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose more than expected in August, suggesting that the standard 25-basis point decrease is still expected next week.

However, on Friday, Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, fueled further speculation about a possible 50-basis point cut in interest rates. He stated that rates were currently 150–200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate, which is the threshold at which policy is neither accommodating nor restrictive for the U.S. economy, making a strong case for lowering them.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has imposed a fine of N1.69bn on Abuja Electricity Distribution Company for overbilling customers.

The penalty, documented in Order NERC/2024/114, was issued as part of the commission’s September 2024 Supplementary Order.

The regulatory document, ORDER/NERC/2024/114, which was dated August 30 and signed by Vice Chairman, Musiliu Oseni, and Commissioner, Legal, Licensing and Compliance, Dafe Akpeneye, was published on NERC’s website on Thursday.

According to NERC, the fine is based on AEDC’s non-compliance with the commission’s previous order on capping estimated billing for electricity consumers.

After investigating AEDC’s billing practices, NERC identified that the company had overcharged customers from January to September 2023, leading to the imposition of the fine which is equivalent to 10 per cent of the overbilled amount.

The regulatory document, titled September 2024 Supplementary Order to the Multi-Year Tariff Order 2024 for AEDC, outlined the reasons behind the fine and adjustments to AEDC’s revenue requirements and tariffs.

The commission stated that it had “approved the deduction of N1.69bn from the total annual OpEx of AEDC effective September 2024, being 10 per cent of the overbilled amount by AEDC for the period covering January-September 2023.”

The fine was levied in response to complaints by consumers and subsequent investigations that revealed AEDC had not adhered to the regulatory guidelines on estimated billing.

NERC’s order emphasised, “The commission has approved the deduction of N1.69bn from AEDC’s annual operating expenditure as a penalty for non-compliance with the order on capping estimated bills.”

In addition to the fine, NERC also issued directives aimed at improving service delivery and monitoring compliance with service-based tariffs.

AEDC is required to ensure the continuous monitoring of its service levels, particularly regarding electricity supply to Band A feeders.

“Where AEDC fails to deliver on the committed level of service on a Band A feeder for consecutive two days, AEDC shall on the next day by 10am publish on its website an explanation of the reasons for the failure,” the order specified.

The Supplementary Order also mandated AEDC to procure a minimum of 61MW of embedded generation, with at least 30MW sourced from renewable energy, to improve the reliability of electricity supply within its franchise area.

The procurement of this capacity must be completed by April 2025.

NERC emphasised that this measure was necessary to meet AEDC’s service delivery commitments under its Service-Based Tariff framework.

Regarding the adjustments to AEDC’s tariffs, NERC noted that the commission had approved new tariffs effective from September 1, 2024.

NERC also made provisions for compensating customers for service failures, particularly for those on Band A feeders.

“AEDC shall make appropriate compensation to the affected customers in Band A feeders listed in Appendix 3 for failure to deliver up to 20 hours of average supply but more than 18 hours of average supply,” the order stated.

The Supplementary Order, which will remain in effect until a new tariff review is issued, underscores NERC’s commitment to ensuring that electricity distribution companies adhere to regulatory guidelines while protecting consumers from unfair billing practices.

The Naira yesterday depreciated to N1,655 per dollar in the parallel market from N1,645 per
dollar traded on Wednesday.

Similarly, the Naira yesterday depreciated to N1,649.76 per dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market, NAFEM.

Data from FMDQ showed that the indicative exchange rate for NAFEM rose to N1,649.76 per dollar from N1,558.75 per dollar on Wednesday, indicating N91.01 depreciation for the naira.

Consequently, the margin between the parallel market and NAFEM rate narrowed to N5.24 per dollar from N86.25 per dollar the previous day.